Exxon Mobil Corporation (ticker: XOM, exchange: New York Stock Exchange (.N))
News Release -
ExxonMobil's 2012 Outlook for Energy Sees Efficiency, Developing
World Economic Growth and Natural Gas Reshaping Global Demand through
Demand to be about 30 percent higher in 2040 versus 2010 as population
grows and global GDP doubles; demand in developing nations rises
nearly 60 percent.
Less-carbon-intensive fuels, particularly natural gas, gain market
share, while coal peaks and begins a decline for the first time in
Gas from shale and other unconventional rock formations will account
for 30 percent of global gas production by 2040.
Demand growth would be more than four times the projected 30 percent
without expected gains in efficiency.
IRVING, Texas, Dec 08, 2011 (BUSINESS WIRE) --
Demand for energy will rise through 2040 as global economic output
doubles and prosperity expands across a world where population will grow
to nearly 9 billion people, Exxon
Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) states in its TheOutlook for Energy: A View to 2040, issued today. Extending
its annual long-term energy forecast to 2040 for the first time,
ExxonMobil said this year's Outlook reveals several trends that
will influence how the world uses energy over the coming decades.
The Outlook projects that global energy demand in 2040 will be
about 30 percent higher than it was in 2010, led by growth in developing
regions such as China, India, Africa and other emerging economies.
While oil will remain the most widely used fuel, overall energy demand
will be reshaped by a continued shift toward less-carbon-intensive
energy sources - such as natural gas - as well as steep improvements in
energy efficiency in areas like transportation, where the expanded use
of hybrid vehicles will help push average new-car fuel economy to nearly
50 miles per gallon by 2040.
"TheOutlook for Energy demonstrates that by applying
innovation and technology, the world does not need to choose between
economic growth and environmental stewardship," said Rex W. Tillerson,
chairman and chief executive officer of Exxon Mobil Corporation. "As
people in developed countries look to regain their economic momentum,
and as everyone seeks improved living standards for themselves and their
families, ExxonMobil will continue to invest in the technologies that
enable us to provide the reliable, affordable energy central to economic
growth and human progress."
As in previous editions of The Outlook for Energy, rising demand
for electricity is identified as the single largest influence on energy
trends. ExxonMobil projects that global electricity demand will rise by
80 percent through 2040 as economies and living standards improve, and
consumers switch to electricity from other sources such as oil, coal or
biomass. By 2040, four out of every 10 units of energy produced in the
world will be going toward the production of electricity.
The mix of fuels used to produce electricity will change dramatically,
however, as nations shift away from coal in favor of lower-carbon
sources such as natural gas, which emit up to 60 percent less CO2
than coal when used for electricity generation. By 2040, 30 percent of
the world's electricity will be produced using natural gas, while demand
for coal will peak and experience its first long-term decline in modern
The Outlook for Energy also reveals the impact of new
technologies that are expanding global energy supplies, such as advances
in production techniques that have unlocked a century's worth of natural
gas across the United States. ExxonMobil estimates that natural
gas from shale and similar sources will account for 30 percent of global
gas production by 2040.
Developed by a team of experts using a combination of public and
proprietary sources, The Outlook for Energy guides ExxonMobil's
global investment decisions. Many of its findings are similar to those
from other respected organizations, including the International Energy
Agency. ExxonMobil publishes TheOutlookfor Energy
to encourage broader understanding of energy issues among policy makers
and the public.
Among this year's findings:
While demand in the United States and other fully developed economies
will remain relatively constant, global growth in energy demand will
be led by China and other countries which are not part of the
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Non OECD
energy demand is projected to rise by nearly 60 percent from 2010 to
While global energy demand is expected to rise by about 30 percent
from 2010 to 2040, demand growth would be approximately four times
that amount without projected gains in efficiency. Efficiency is the
key reason why energy demand will rise by only about 1 percent a year
on average even as global GDP rises by nearly 3 percent a year. It
also is the reason why OECD energy demand will remain relatively
unchanged through 2040 even as its economic output nearly doubles.
In transportation, the second-fastest growing demand sector behind
electricity generation, ExxonMobil sees advanced hybrid vehicles
accounting for 50 percent of the cars people will drive in 2040,
compared to about 1 percent today. This, plus improved fuel economy in
conventional vehicles, will cause demand for energy for personal
vehicles to remain essentially flat through 2040 even as the number of
personal vehicles in the world doubles.
However, demand for energy for commercial transportation -- trucks,
airplanes, ships and trains -- will rise by more than 70 percent,
driven by economic growth, particularly in Non OECD nations.
Demand for oil and other liquid fuels will rise by nearly 30 percent,
and most of that increase will be linked to transportation. A growing
share of the supplies used to meet liquid-fuel demand will come from
deepwater, oil sands, tight oil, natural gas liquids and biofuels.
Natural gas will continue to be the fastest-growing major fuel, and
demand will increase by about 60 percent from 2010 to 2040. Growth is
particularly strong in the Non OECD countries in the Asia Pacific
region, where demand for natural gas is expected to triple over the
next 30 years.
While growth in nuclear capacity is expected to slow in the near-term,
demand for nuclear power is projected to nearly double over The
Outlook for Energy period as nations seek to lower emissions and
diversify energy sources.
Renewable fuels will see strong growth. By 2040, more than 15 percent
of the world's electricity will be generated by renewable fuels --
solar, wind, biofuels, biomass, geothermal and hydroelectric power.
The fastest-growing of these will be wind, which will increase by
about 8 percent per year from 2010 to 2040.
Demand for reliable, affordable energy exists every day in every
community. Meeting this demand requires foresight and effective
long-term planning followed by huge investments and years of work to
build the infrastructure required to produce and deliver energy and
chemicals. It also takes an ongoing ability to understand and manage an
evolving set of technical, financial, geopolitical and environmental
risks in a dynamic world. The Outlook for Energy is an essential
tool to help ExxonMobil provide the energy needed for continuing human
For more information about ExxonMobil's Outlook for Energy, visit www.exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook.
Cautionary Statement:The Outlook and this release contain
forward-looking statements.Actual future conditions (including
economic conditions, energy demand, energy supply sources, and
efficiency gains) could differ materially due to changes in law or
government regulation and other political events, changes in technology,
the development of new supply sources, demographic changes, and other
factors discussed in the Outlook and under the heading "Factors
Affecting Future Results" on the Investors page of our website at www.exxonmobil.com.See also Item 1A of ExxonMobil's latest Form 10-K.
the largest publicly traded international oil and gas company, uses
technology and innovation to help meet the world's growing energy needs.
ExxonMobil holds an industry-leading inventory of resources, is the
largest refiner and marketer of petroleum products, and its chemical
company is one of the largest in the world.
Follow ExxonMobil on Twitter at www.twitter.com/exxonmobil.
SOURCE: Exxon Mobil Corporation
Media Adviser, 972-444-1107